Join me for a quick review of the spikes & dips in the Bitcoin exchange rate. This time, it’s all about one very simple chart. [continue below graphic]…
The chart below shows a history of BTC price spikes, dips and recovery. Click to enlarge, then start at the top—and move down.
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- Consider the percent-pullback after each spike (red label)
- Think about the stellar rebound after each drop (green label)
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This is why I do not get too worked up over the eaxhc plunge in the BTC exchange rate. There are no fundamental flaws in Bitcoin math or mechanisms. The market need for the benefits conveyed by Bitcoin is terrific, and the most popular arguments against Bitcoin are severely flawed. Skeptics and Critics typically say something like this:
“Even if blockchain currencies are beneficial and inevitable, Bitcoin can be displaced by another, better cryptocurrency.”
—Or—
“A viable crypto may emerge—but it will be one that is backed by a tangible asset or issued/sanctioned by government.”
These arguments are false. They are made by individuals who don’t yet fully appreciate the mechanism and its relationship with trust, money, government and free markets.
What Bitcoin currently lacks is education, familiarity, standards, simple commercial tools (built upon clear analogies), definitive best practices, a widespread understanding of multisig & security, and limited recourse for certain commercial & retail transactions. But Bitcoin is still an infant, just like the early TV or the early telephone. All of these are under development—without a hint of significant obstacles. Even the messy process of democracy among the various stakeholders is heading toward harmony (miners, developers, vendors, exchanges and consumers).
Of course, I am bullish on Bitcoin, and this may color my analysis. But, I try hard to keep an open mind. There have been moments in its history where I have questioned the market need or the potential for a setback in politics, legislation, or the mechanism itself. Those doubts are in the past. Bitcoin has demonstrated the elegance and value of the blockchain—and the ability to evolve beyond the blockchain with SegWit and Lightning Network. It has achieved a fluid, robust and growing two-sided market.
No one holding assets likes to see a big price pullback. It’s natural to look at the market as if we each got in at the peak—and then tally the “losses”. But I, for one, am not glancing toward the exit. I see the future and I sleep well at night. I am comfortable participating in the Bitcoin era.
I too am bullish on Bitcoin. But, when I read yout comment “…..What Bitcoin currently lacks is education, familiarity, standards, simple commercial tools (built upon clear analogies), definitive best practices, a widespread understanding of multisig & security, and limited recourse for certain commercial & retail transactions……”. my first thought is that’s a lot of areas for improvement. This is going to take a lot of time.
Hi Stephen. It’s good to see you return to this forum!
There are multiple categories yet to mature—and I didn’t even mention the big task of replacing Proof of Work with a more sustainable consensus mechanism. The need for this archetecture shift looms over the entire Satoshi-blockchain ecosystem. But, urgent needs in other areas related to mass-adoption are not as critical you fear.
A look at how much ground was covered in the past 15 months suggests that the outlook and time horizon is not at all discouraging. In fact, I am optimistic that things will come together for the greater audience in the next 2 years; and more certainly within 4 years.